95.8 Β· rates falling
The GBC Commercial Insurance Rate Index
The branded composite index for US commercial-insurance rate direction. Below 100 = rates falling (pro-buyer environment). Above 100 = rates rising. 100 = flat year-over-year.
Cite as "GBC Rate Indexβ’". Source URL:
getbusinesscoverage.com/rate-index. Always include
the index value, the as-of date, and a link back so readers
can verify the underlying SERFF filings.
Example pull-quote for journalists:
"The GBC Rate Indexβ’ β a composite tracking US commercial-insurance rate direction across 52 SERFF-cited state DOI filings β currently reads 95.8, indicating rates falling."
Top movers β biggest absolute rate changes
Ranked by largest absolute % change across captured filings. Each links to the source SERFF filing.
Methodology
The GBC Rate Indexβ’ is computed as:
Index = 100 + mean(signed % change across captured filings)
Same convention as a price index (CPI, PPI). Below 100 = rates falling faster than the inception baseline; above 100 = rates rising.
- Filing universe. Every entry in the Insurance Rate Changes Tracker that has a signed % rate change at the bureau or carrier filing level. Per-filing data is sourced from primary state DOI SERFF portals (filingaccess.serff.com), state insurance department bulletins, and direct rate-bureau publications (NCCI, ISO, WCIRB, NYCIRB, NJCRIB, PCRB, etc.).
- Weighting. Each captured filing contributes equally to the mean. Future versions may weight by state premium volume; the equal-weight version is the current reference.
- Update cadence. Re-computed live on every page render. As new filings are added to the tracker, the index automatically shifts.
- Scope. Currently covers Workers Compensation (the deepest data set), Commercial Auto, Commercial General Liability, Commercial Property, BOP, and carrier-level Loss Cost Multipliers. Personal lines are out of scope.
- What's NOT in the index. Pricing actions that aren't a stated % change β base-rate filings (per-vehicle, per-record), LCM-only filings, and rule-only revisions don't contribute to the mean. These are tracked separately on the full tracker but don't move the composite.
- Limitations. The index measures the rate direction bureaus and carriers are filing β it does NOT predict individual carrier premiums for a specific business. Filed rates are the floor; individual quotes vary by underwriting.
See full sourcing policy at /methodology. Reviewer of record: Jason Wootton, CA-licensed P&C agent (#0I94454).
What the index means β and how to read it
The GBC Rate Indexβ’ is a directional read on whether commercial-insurance rates filed with state regulators are moving up or down right now. Think of it the way you think of the Consumer Price Index β a single number that summarizes a basket of real, sourced data points.
How to read it:
- Exactly 100 = the average of captured filings is flat year-over-year. No net rate movement.
- Below 100 = filings are net decreases. The lower the number, the steeper the drop. 95 = roughly -5% average decline; 90 = roughly -10%.
- Above 100 = filings are net increases. 105 = ~+5% average; 110 = ~+10%.
- Bands worth knowing: 92-95 = strongly pro-buyer; 95-99 = mildly pro-buyer; 99-101 = essentially flat; 101-105 = mildly pro-carrier; 105+ = strongly pro-carrier.
Why "filed" beats "estimated." Most rate trackers report carrier-survey estimates, blog-aggregator averages, or analyst projections. The GBC Rate Index is computed from actual rate filings carriers submitted to state Departments of Insurance β these are legal documents the regulator approved (or rejected, or modified). Every input is a SERFF tracking number you can pull from the state DOI portal yourself.
The current environment
As of the last build, the index reads 95.8 Β· rates falling. 86% of the 37 states we track filed rate decreases in their most recent cycle. The dominant driver across NCCI states + non-NCCI bureaus is improving loss experience β fewer lost-time workers comp claims relative to payroll, continued long-term frequency decline, and reserve releases as older policy years close better than projected.
The notable exceptions go the other way. Nevada approved a +21.6% NCCI loss-cost increase effective 3/1/2026 β the largest 2026 state-level increase nationally, driven by elevated large losses + a spike in leisure/hospitality claims. California's WCIRB proposed +10.4% on its 9/1/2026 filing β biggest CA WC hike in a decade, driven by cumulative-trauma frequency + medical/ALAE inflation. Washington L&I adopted +4.9% for its monopolistic state fund. Each is captured in the live tracker with the SERFF number that traces back to the regulator.
Rate direction by line of business
The composite index above pools all 9 lines we track. Read direction line-by-line in the full tracker; key patterns across 2026 filings:
- Workers Compensation (deepest data, ~28 states): broadly decreasing. NCCI 2026 filings averaged -3 to -7% across most states. Outliers: NV +21.6% (3/1/2026), CA WCIRB +10.4% proposed (9/1/2026), WA L&I +4.9% (monopolistic).
- Commercial Auto: ISO 2024 multistate zone-rated rules + loss-costs revision approved in TX (eff 9/12/2025). Carrier LCMs continue to climb on the loss-cost baseline.
- Commercial General Liability: ISO multistate rules revision approved (TX, 7/11/2025). Macro carrier-level movement is mixed.
- Commercial Property: ISO 2024 advisory loss-cost revision (eff 1/14/2025). The story in property is geography β coastal-wind (FL Citizens +10.4% requested) and wildfire-zone (CA FAIR Plan overlay) markets pricing materially above ISO baselines.
- BOP: ISO 2025 advisory loss-cost revision (eff 11/18/2025) β packages property + GL.
- Carrier LCMs: Hartford Underwriters (SD) at 1.369; Travelers Casualty Insurance Co of America (SD) tiered at 1.5676 / 1.9595 / 2.5474 (best to substandard) β a 62% spread on the same loss cost.
What's driving it
For the mechanics behind every number β how loss costs become LCMs become final rates, why the same NCCI class can cost 60% more under one carrier than another, and what "filed and approved" actually means at the state DOI β see How Insurance Rates Are Set. That's the explainer hub anchored to the same SERFF-cited data that feeds this index.
Frequently asked questions
Are commercial insurance rates rising or falling in 2026?
Mostly falling. The GBC Rate Indexβ’ sits at 95.8 (below 100 = falling). 86% of the 37 states we track filed rate decreases in their most recent cycle, with the mean signed change in the small-negative range. Notable exceptions filed increases: Nevada (+21.6% eff 3/1/2026), California WCIRB (+10.4% proposed for 9/1/2026), and Washington L&I (+4.9% adopted for 2026).
What is the GBC Rate Indexβ’?
A branded composite index of US commercial-insurance rate direction, computed from the actual rate filings carriers submit to state regulators (SERFF), not blended estimates. 100 = flat year-over-year; below 100 = rates falling; above 100 = rising. Same convention as the Consumer Price Index or any standard price index. Every input traces back to a SERFF tracking number you can verify on the originating state DOI portal.
How is the index calculated?
Index = 100 + mean(signed % change) across captured filings. Each captured filing with a stated % rate change contributes equally to the mean. Filings without a clean signed % (per-vehicle base rates, LCM-only filings, rule revisions) don't feed the mean; they're tracked separately. The index recomputes live on every page render.
Which states are cutting rates the most?
Per the live data: NV −32.8%, ND −23.8%, WY −15.0%, MD −12.3%, SD −12.2%. See the full SERFF-cited tracker for every captured filing.
Where does the data come from?
Public SERFF filings on state Department of Insurance portals (filingaccess.serff.com), plus NCCI advisory loss-cost filings, ISO Commercial GL / Auto / Property / BOP loss-cost filings, non-NCCI bureau filings (WCIRB CA, NYCIRB NY, NJCRIB, PCRB PA, WCRB WI, Oregon DCBS), monopolistic state funds (Ohio BWC, Washington L&I, Wyoming DWS, North Dakota WSI), and carrier-level Loss Cost Multiplier filings from state DOI listings.
Will this predict what my company's premium will be?
No β and this is the critical caveat. The index measures the rate direction bureaus and carriers are filing. It does not predict an individual carrier's quote for your specific business. Filed rates are the regulatory floor; individual quotes vary by underwriting (class code, payroll, experience modifier, claims history, controls). For an actual quote, use our quote comparison.
How often is the index updated?
The composite recomputes live on every page render β so the number you see is always current as of the last filing added to the underlying tracker. New filings get added on an ongoing weekly cadence; SERFF auto-polling is on the roadmap.
"GBC Rate Indexβ’ β 95.8 (rates falling), as of June 2026, Get Business Coverage. Computed from SERFF-cited state filings."
Source URL: getbusinesscoverage.com/rate-index
Always include the index value, the as-of date, and the source URL so readers can verify the underlying SERFF filings.
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